Fiat Currencies All Over The World Face the Same Fate as The FTX Fiasco

Dylan LeClair and Mark Moss break down the FTX implosion, the current GBTC discount and how the global macro environment will affect the bitcoin price.This is a recording of a recent Twitter Spaces with the Bitcoin Magazine Pro team and Mark Moss to break down the FTX implosion and how it relates to the global macro environment.Listen To This Twitter Spaces:AppleSpotifyGoogleLibsynDylan LeClair: In regards to GBTC, one of the things that I saw, which makes total sense, I’d never thought of this: The fee is 2% of NAV (net asset value). Mark, you were referring to a fee of 3-4%. I didn’t know that a 3-4% fee was charged for this item once it went from a premium to an offer. However, if it trades at a 50% discount to NAV you will be charged a 4% fee. If you are able to get it at a steep discount for a long time, you will be taking quite the churn. It becomes less attractive. It’s attractive because it has the upside. The Bitcoin cost equivalent to GBTC is currently $9K. So if it returns to par, you do quite well. We need to ask if the conversion will ever become an ETF. They are essentially printing a 2% fee for 600,000 bitcoin. What is the real incentive? It’s a very good business model. Although it’s not ideal for its holders, I believe it’s a good business model. If you don’t have any other options, GBTC can provide decent exposure to bitcoin. Sam Rule: I would add that GBTC is pursuing this strategy and suing the SEC. Sam Rule: I would only add that GBTC is pursuing that strategy, suing the SEC. Mark Moss: Sam, do think that the timetable is pushed back? You stated that it would be 2024. Gary Gensler has been vocal about why he doesn’t want to approve the spot ETF. One way I can see anyone in this space saying, “Hey, why don’t you have a spot Bitcoin ETF?” It would have been very helpful to give people private custody. But it pushes the timeline further out because there will be a wave regulation and scrutiny. Every three-letter industry name will be contacted by the government. It’s likely to increase the regulation pressure in the U.S.LeClair says that the long-term odds of having an ETF are definitely higher. Anyone who paid attention to FTX or Alameda before the fraud, the shady balance sheets and all of it even came into question before LUNA/3AC, and no one in crypto had ever muttered “contagion”, knew that Alameda was trading against its users. Arthur Hayes was sentenced to house arrest and millions in fines. I believe regulators and everyone in general turned a blindeye or acknowledged it. However, only a few traders I spoke to almost recognized it as a challenge. “We’re playing against a house, but it’s half the fun,” knowing Alameda was one and the exact same as FTX. Gary Gensler and other SEC guys did talk about the spot ETF. Market manipulation was one of the reasons they denied it. It’s not right now. It’s clearly very bad. But, in the long-term, getting rid of fraudulent actors and clearing it all up from a regulatory standpoint could be a positive. It may increase the chances of spot ETF, despite our painful journey. However, I like to use this whole black eye in industry to look at — and then if we want to jump to the larger macro picture and then talk through what’s going to happen over the next few years and ten years. This whole situation with FTX/FTT is a great example. It’s like a small example of what’s going on in the larger system. If you take FTX and Alameda as examples, companies like FTX would create a token from thin air and call it FTT. Then people would trade this token for their perceived value. But then people realized that they didn’t want to hold the FTT token any more and started dumping it. CZ may have started the ball rolling by announcing that he was going to dump it. Everyone started dumping it. The company FTX is now stuck trying to defend this currency. They are now trying to sell any asset to buy FTT tokens to keep the valuation up to prove that it is still there. We had 20 million short sellers who piled in and just pushed the price down. But if you take this exact example and look at Japan, you will see that they created the yen token from thin air. They call it fiat. They give it value by decree, much like the market makers gave FTT Value. People then start to use the yen because it is valued. But soon, people realize they don’t want to hold the currency and sell it short. Japan is now in the same position, trying to dump any money they can to support the yen token. It’s exactly the same thing. Japan is now dumping its cash. To prop up this token, they are now dumping Treasurys. It’s helpful to discuss this on the macro call because it is one of the larger forces. FTT is now visible. You can also see the yen situation by looking at the British pound, the ECB/euro and even the Fed situations. They’ve created a dollar token that no one really wants. We want goods and services. We want goods and services. Although FTX was a negative for bitcoin, it will be a positive for people who see the ECB and U.K as a catalyst to bitcoin’s rise.

 

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