Bitcoin Sellers Are Exhausted, Accumulators HODL The Line

Bitcoin Magazine ProBitcoin Supply-side Dynamics and On-Chain Indicators look as strong and as strong today as ever. However, legacy and risk assets still face macroeconomic headwinds. The below is an excerpt from Bitcoin Magazine PRO, Bitcoin Magazine’s premium markets newsletter. Subscribe now to get these insights and other on the-chain analysis right to your inbox. We highlighted key metrics that we track on-chain. We will be discussing more of these metrics in this article. Many on-chain cyclical indicators have pointed to a classic bottom in bitcoin’s price over the course of bitcoin’s short history. These indicators are most useful in identifying market extremes, which can be tops or bottoms. These indicators are overlayed with previous bitcoin price bottoms. However, they must be considered in conjunction with other macroeconomic factors. Readers should also consider the possibility of another bear market rally as we remain below the 200-week moving mean price of $24,600. However, if price is able to sustain above $20,000 in short-term, the bullish indicators paint a compelling picture for more long-term accumulation. A potential market-wide selloff of risk assets that are currently pricing in a “soft landing” scenario, along with incorrect expectations of a Federal Reserve pivot in the second-half of this year, is a major tail risk. Many economic indicators and data continue to point to the possibility of a bearish market similar to 2000-2002 and 2007-2008. The worst is yet to come. This secular bear market is what makes this bitcoin cycle different from any other in the past. It also makes it difficult to use historical bitcoin cycles that occurred after 2012 as analogues for today. All of this being said, it is clear that the bitcoin-native perspective sees the story clearly. We can see different cohorts of bitcoin owners with great clarity, due to the transparent nature bitcoin ownership. In this instance, we are looking at the realized price of the average bitcoin holder. This metric is also applicable to both long-term and short-term holders (LTH). We can use the realized price, STH realized prices and LTH realized prices to determine where different market cohorts are in profit or under water. The monthly realized price for both short-term and long-term holders. Since April, realized losses have turned to realized profits. Capitulation and loss taking have flipped to profit realization across all of the network, which is a healthy sign that there has been a lot of capitulation. It is clear that current market participants will struggle to shake off bitcoin’s elasticity, as demonstrated by the historically low number of short-term holders and the large number long-term holders. This is especially true when you consider the 12 month struggle. Long-term bitcoin holders are statistically unaffected by bitcoin price volatility. The data shows that there was a healthy amount accumulation in 2022, despite the huge risk-off event in the legacy market and bitcoin. Although liquidity dynamics in legacy markets need to be noted, supply-side dynamics for Bitcoin appear to be as strong and as strong as ever. A small influx in new demand will be all that is required to see a significant price increase. Subscribe now to receive PRO articles directly in your inbox.BM Pro Market Dashboard Release!On-Chain Data Shows ‘Potential Bottom’ For Bitcoin But Macro Headwinds RemainThe Everything Bubble: Markets At A CrossroadsNot Your Average Recession: Unwinding The Largest Financial Bubble In HistoryKey Bitcoin And Equity Dynamics To Watch Right NowTake A Hike: Fed Lags Miles Behind The Curve On FOMC EveTagsterms:Realized Bitcoin PriceMarket capOn-chain AnalysisHodlTechnical analysis


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